Friday, December 17, 2010

Special Report: Is America the sick man of the globe?

Not long ago, if you wanted steak for lunch at the Texan Restaurant, less than two minutes drive from the Nexteer Automotive assembly plant, you had to be in the door by 11 o'clock in the morning. If you arrived any later, you joined a long line with other laggards and waited for a table to open up.

With noon fast approaching on a recent day, however, only a handful of customers sat in one of the restaurant's two sections and the other was closed.

Asked how the decline in the U.S. auto industry has affected the local economy, Tammy Maynard, a waitress here since 1988, waved a hand around at the empty tables and said: "You're looking at it, sugar."
Regulars and retirees keep the restaurant in business, while workers at the nearby auto supplier plant buy steak at the beginning of the month when they get paid -- if they come at all -- and then dine on specials over the next four weeks.

"I just keep praying every day that we've hit the bottom and that things are going to get better," Maynard said, "because it doesn't seem like it could get any worse."

The U.S. government may have bailed out General Motors, the country's largest automaker, but it hasn't begun to tackle the broader problems that led to the city's implosion. Doing so, experts say, would require the kind of political will that has not been in great evidence in the country recently.

To the few remaining auto workers left in a city half the size it was in 1960, the America they knew growing up is long gone and things can only get worse.

"We have made concession after concession on wages and benefits and there is no end in sight," said Dean Parm, a worker and union committeeman at Nexteer Automotive, whose hourly wages have been cut to around $17 an hour from $28. "It feels like we're dinosaurs. And we're on the verge of extinction."
This is the point of the story where many Americans typically glaze over because they see Michigan as a long-standing financial basket case of a state thanks to the shrinking U.S. auto industry. But the problem is that the broad decline of the manufacturing sector that has been underway in this country for decades now may threaten not just the long-term health of the economy but also the living standards of all but the wealthiest Americans.

"The whole country is now seeing the story that Michigan has been living with for a long time," said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial. "We have kicked the can so far down the road that now all we have is a cliff to fall off."

"The recession merely revealed a reality that has been with us for a long time. We faced a growing gap in education and skills that we tried to fill with debt and credit, which gave us the illusion of growth."
After World War Two, unskilled blue-collar jobs in manufacturing -- typified and in many ways defined by the auto sector -- became America's easy path to the middle class. As U.S. manufacturing declined, starting in the 1980s Congress and successive administrations focused instead on the financial sector and relied on debt -- its own and that of the U.S. consumer -- to foster economic growth.

At the same time, U.S. companies faced a growing competitive challenge, largely from Asia -- both in terms of manufacturing prowess and lower wages and legacy costs -- that hastened the nation's exodus from the sector.

That in turn created lop-sided trade imbalances, with the U.S. invariably in the red. The U.S. trade deficit with China, for instance -- a nation that tightly controls its imports -- hit a record of $268 billion in 2008 and could reach $270 billion this year.

At the other end of the spectrum, deregulation and a laissez-faire attitude toward financial institutions culminated in the housing "boom" that former Ohio Attorney General Richard Cordray (who failed to win reelection in November) has aptly described as a "Roman orgy" of debt.

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